High-resolution early warning system for human Puumala hantavirus infection risk in Germany.

The fluctuation of human infections by the Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in Germany has been linked to weather and phenology parameters that drive the population growth of its host species. We quantified the annual PUUV-outbreaks at the district level by binarizing the reported infections in the period 2006-2021. With these labels we trained a model based on a support vector machine classifier for predicting local outbreaks and incidence well in advance. The feature selection for the optimal model was performed by a heuristic method and identified five monthly weather variables from the previous two years plus the beech flowering intensity of the previous year. The predictive power of the optimal model was assessed by a leave-one-out cross-validation in 16 years that led to an 82.8% accuracy for the outbreak and a 0.457 coefficient of determination for the incidence. Prediction risk maps for the entire endemic area in Germany will be annually available on a freely-accessible permanent online platform of the German Environment Agency. The model correctly identified 2022 as a year with low outbreak risk, whereas its prediction for large-scale high outbreak risk in 2023 was not confirmed.

Rodent host population dynamics drive zoonotic Lyme Borreliosis and Orthohantavirus infections in humans in Northern Europe.

Zoonotic diseases, caused by pathogens transmitted between other vertebrate animals and humans, pose a major risk to human health. Rodents are important reservoir hosts for many zoonotic pathogens, and rodent population dynamics affect the infection dynamics of rodent-borne diseases, such as diseases caused by hantaviruses. However, the role of rodent population dynamics in determining the infection dynamics of rodent-associated tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis (LB), caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato bacteria, have gained limited attention in Northern Europe, despite the multiannual abundance fluctuations, the so-called vole cycles, that characterise rodent population dynamics in the region. Here, we quantify the associations between rodent abundance and LB human cases and Puumala Orthohantavirus (PUUV) infections by using two time series (25-year and 9-year) in Finland. Both bank vole (Myodes glareolus) abundance as well as LB and PUUV infection incidence in humans showed approximately 3-year cycles. Without vector transmitted PUUV infections followed the bank vole host abundance fluctuations with two-month time lag, whereas tick-transmitted LB was associated with bank vole abundance ca. 12 and 24 months earlier. However, the strength of association between LB incidence and bank vole abundance ca. 12 months before varied over the study years. This study highlights that the human risk to acquire rodent-borne pathogens, as well as rodent-associated tick-borne pathogens is associated with the vole cycles in Northern Fennoscandia, yet with complex time lags.

Multiplex PCR-Based Nanopore Sequencing and Epidemiological Surveillance of Hantaan orthohantavirus in Apodemus agrarius, Republic of Korea.

Whole-genome sequencing of infectious agents enables the identification and characterization of emerging viruses. The MinION device is a portable sequencer that allows real-time sequencing in fields or hospitals. Hantaan orthohantavirus (Hantaan virus, HTNV), harbored by Apodemus agrarius, causes hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and poses a critical public health threat worldwide. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the feasibility of using nanopore sequencing for whole-genome sequencing of HTNV from samples having different viral copy numbers. Amplicon-based next-generation sequencing was performed in A. agrarius lung tissues collected from the Republic of Korea. Genomic sequences of HTNV were analyzed based on the viral RNA copy numbers. Amplicon-based nanopore sequencing provided nearly full-length genomic sequences of HTNV and showed sufficient read depth for phylogenetic analysis after 8 h of sequencing. The average identity of the HTNV genome sequences for the nanopore sequencer compared to those of generated from Illumina MiSeq revealed 99.8% (L and M segments) and 99.7% (S segment) identities, respectively. This study highlights the potential of the portable nanopore sequencer for rapid generation of accurate genomic sequences of HTNV for quicker decision making in point-of-care testing of HFRS patients during a hantavirus outbreak.

Seoul Virus in Pet and Feeder Rats in The Netherlands.

Seoul virus (SEOV) is a zoonotic orthohantavirus carried by rats. In humans, SEOV can cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Recent human SEOV cases described in the USA, United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands were associated with contact with pet or feeder rats. The prevalence of SEOV in these types of rats is unknown. We collected 175 pet and feeder rats (Rattus norvegicus) from private owners, ratteries and commercial breeders/traders in the Netherlands. Lung tissue of the rats was tested using a SEOV real-time RT-qPCR and heart fluid was tested for the presence of antibodies against SEOV. In all three investigated groups, RT-qPCR-positive rats were found: in 1/29 rats from private owners (3.6%), 2/56 rats from ratteries (3.4%) and 11/90 rats from commercial breeders (12.2%). The seroprevalence was largely similar to the prevalence calculated from RT-qPCR-positive rats. The SEOV sequences found were highly similar to sequences previously found in domesticated rats in Europe. In conclusion, SEOV is spread throughout different populations of domesticated rats.

Protective effect of predator species richness on human hantavirus infection incidence.

Are predators of rodents beneficial for public health? This question focuses on whether predators regulate the spillover transmission of rodent-borne diseases. No clear answer has emerged because of the complex linkages across multiple trophic levels and the lack of accessible data. Although previous empirical findings have suggested ecological mechanisms, such as resource partitioning, which implies protective effects from predator species richness, epidemiological evidence is needed to bolster these arguments. Thus, we investigated the association between predator species richness and incidence of rodent-borne haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in the human population using district-level longitudinal data of 13 years for South Korea. With the exception of districts with low species richness, we found a significant negative association between the incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and the species richness of both avian and mammalian predators; the trends for both predator types were similar. Thus, biodiversity conservation may benefit public health.

Investigation on risk factors of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Xuancheng City in Anhui Province, Mainland China.

Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne disease, is a major public health concern in both developed and developing countries. China is the most severe endemic country in the world, constituting 90% of the cases. Although the incidence of HFRS has substantively decreased in most areas of China, HFRS has rebounded remarkably in some epidemic areas. Xuancheng is one of these areas. In this study, we collected the case data reported recently in Xuancheng and designed a 1:3 case-control study. The Chi-square test, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed. In all cases, farmers made up the highest proportion of occupations. And there were 20 variables with statistical significance including indoor hygienic conditions; the surrounding environment; whether bitten by rats at work and other criteria. In addition, exposure to rodents and rats bites is a high-risk factor for HFRS. Rodent density was calculated at 20.9% (159/760), the virus carrier rate was 9.4% (15/159) and the index of rats with a virus was about 2.0%. Exposure to rodents and insect bites is also high-risk factors for HFRS among local residents in Xuancheng. More importantly, during the flood years, the increased density of rodents led to an increased risk of human exposure to rodents. As our statistical analysis proves, targeted strategies should be developed and implemented to reduce the incidence of local diseases in the future.

Orthohantaviruses infections in humans and rodents in Baoji, China.

In recent years, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) incidence has been becoming a severe public health problem again due to its significant increase in Shaanxi Province, China. Baoji, located in the Guanzhong Plain in the central part of Shaanxi Province, has been severely affected by HFRS since its first emergence in 1955. To better understand the epidemiology of orthohantaviruses infection in humans and the causative agents carried by the rodents, the long-term incidence patterns were analyzed and a molecular epidemiological investigation of orthohantaviruses infection in humans and rodents was performed. During 1984-2019, 13,042 HFRS cases were registered in Baoji, including 275 death cases. Except the first high prevalence of HFRS in 1988-1993, another two epidemic peaks were observed in 1998-2003 and 2012, respectively, although vaccination project was started since 1996. During the same period, HFRS cases in Baoji mainly were recorded in winter suggesting they may be caused by Hantaan orthohantavirus (HTNV), while a small peak of HFRS was also found in summer with unknown reason. Nucleotide identity and phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that a novel clade of HTNV sequences recovered from HFRS cases were closely related to those from rodents, including species close contact with humans, suggesting a direct viral transmission from rodents to humans and the important role in the HTNV transmission the nontraditional rodent hosts may play. Moreover, two distant related Dabieshan orthohantavirus (DBSV) lineages were also identified in Niviventer niviventer in this area demonstrating its considerable genetic diversity. Our data indicated that continual spillover of HTNV from rodents to humans, contributing to the high prevalence of HFRS in humans in Baoji.

Seoul Virus Infection and Spread in United States Home-Based Ratteries: Rat and Human Testing Results From a Multistate Outbreak Investigation.

BACKGROUND: During 2017, a multistate outbreak investigation occurred after the confirmation of Seoul virus (SEOV) infections in people and pet rats. A total of 147 humans and 897 rats were tested. METHODS: In addition to immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgM serology and traditional reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), novel quantitative RT-PCR primers/probe were developed, and whole genome sequencing was performed. RESULTS: Seventeen people had SEOV IgM, indicating recent infection; 7 reported symptoms and 3 were hospitalized. All patients recovered. Thirty-one facilities in 11 US states had SEOV infection, and among those with ≥10 rats tested, rat IgG prevalence ranged 2%-70% and SEOV RT-PCR positivity ranged 0%-70%. Human laboratory-confirmed cases were significantly associated with rat IgG positivity and RT-PCR positivity (P = .03 and P = .006, respectively). Genomic sequencing identified >99.5% homology between SEOV sequences in this outbreak, and these were >99% identical to SEOV associated with previous pet rat infections in England, the Netherlands, and France. Frequent trade of rats between home-based ratteries contributed to transmission of SEOV between facilities. CONCLUSIONS: Pet rat owners, breeders, and the healthcare and public health community should be aware and take steps to prevent SEOV transmission in pet rats and to humans. Biosecurity measures and diagnostic testing can prevent further infections.

A case-control study on the risk factors for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an endemic communicable disease in China, accounting for 90% of total reported cases worldwide. In this study, the authors want to investigate the risk factors for HFRS in recent years to provide the prevention and control advices. METHODS: A community-based, 1:2 matched case-control study was carried out to investigate the risk factors for HFRS. Cases were defined as laboratory-confirmed cases that tested positive for hantavirus-specific IgM antibodies. Two neighbourhood controls of each case were selected by sex, age and occupation. Standardized questionnaires were used to collect information and identify the risk factors for HFRS. RESULTS: Eighty-six matched pairs were investigated in the study. The median age of the cases was 55.0 years, 72.09% were male, and 73.26% were farmers. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, cleaning spare room at home (OR = 3.310, 95%CI 1.335-8.210) was found to be risk factor for infection; storing food and crops properly (OR = 0.279 95%CI 0.097-0.804) provided protection from infection. CONCLUSION: Storing food and crops properly seemed to be protective factor, which was important for HFRS prevention and control. More attention should be paid to promote comprehensive health education and behaviour change among high-risk populations in the HFRS endemic area.

Genetic Characterization and Molecular Evolution of Urban Seoul Virus in Southern China.

Seoul virus (SEOV), which causes hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in humans, has spread all over the world, especially in mainland China. Understanding basic mechanisms of SEOV evolution is essential to better combat and prevent viral diseases. Here, we examined SEOV prevalence and evolution in the residential area of four districts in Guangzhou city, China. The carriage of SEOV was observed in 33.33% of the sampled rodents, with 35.96% of the sampled Rattus norvegicus and 13.33% of R. tanezumi. Based on the comprehensive analyses of large (L), medium (M), and small (S) segments, our study first demonstrated that the genetic characterization of urban SEOV was shaped by high nucleotide substitution rates, purifying selection, and recombination. Additionally, we detected mutational saturation in the S segment of SEOV, which may lead to the biases of genetic divergence and substitution rates in our study. Importantly, we have filled the gap of SEOV evolution in the urban area. The genetic variation of SEOV may highlight the risk of HFRS, which merits further investigation.

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by Seoul hantavirus.

Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) has recently raised concern by causing geographic range expansion of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). SEOV infections in humans are significantly underestimated worldwide and epidemic dynamics of SEOV-related HFRS are poorly understood because of a lack of field data and empirically validated models. Here, we use mathematical models to examine both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of disease transmission from animal (the Norway rat) to humans in a SEOV-endemic area in China. We found that rat eradication schemes and vaccination campaigns, but below the local elimination threshold, could diminish the amplitude of the HFRS epidemic but did not modify its seasonality. Models demonstrate population dynamics of the rodent host were insensitive to climate variations in urban settings, while relative humidity had a negative effect on the seasonality in transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of SEOV-related HFRS, demonstrates asynchronies between rodent population dynamics and transmission rate, and identifies potential drivers of the SEOV seasonality.

Distribution of geographical scale, data aggregation unit and period in the correlation analysis between temperature and incidence of HFRS in mainland China: A systematic review of 27 ecological studies.

BACKGROUND: Changes in climate and environmental conditions could be the driving factors for the transmission of hantavirus. Thus, a thorough collection and analysis of data related to the epidemic status of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and the association between HFRS incidence and meteorological factors, such as air temperature, is necessary for the disease control and prevention. METHODS: Journal articles and theses in both English and Chinese from Jan 2014 to Feb 2019 were identified from PubMed, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data and VIP Info. All identified studies were subject to the six criteria established to ensure the consistency with research objectives, (i) they provided the data of the incidence of HFRS in mainland China; (ii) they provided the type of air temperature indexes; (iii) they indicated the underlying geographical scale information, temporal data aggregation unit, and the data sources; (iv) they provided the statistical analysis method that had been used; (v) from peer-reviewed journals or dissertation; (vi) the time range for the inclusion of data exceeded two consecutive calendar years. RESULTS: A total of 27 publications were included in the systematic review, among them, the correlation between HFRS activity and air temperature was explored in 12 provinces and autonomous regions and also at national level. The study period ranged from 3 years to 54 years with a median of 10 years, 70.4% of the studies were based on the monthly HFRS incidence data, 21 studies considered the lagged effect of air temperature factors on the HFRS activity and the longest lag period considered in the included studies was 34 weeks. The correlation between HFRS activity and air temperature varied widely, and the effect of temperature on the HFRS epidemic was seasonal. CONCLUSIONS: The present systematic review described the heterogeneity of geographical scale, data aggregation unit and study period chosen in the ecological studies that seeking the correlation between air temperature indexes and the incidence of HFRS in mainland China during the period from January 2014 to February 2019. The appropriate adoption of geographical scale, data aggregation unit, the length of lag period and the length of incidence collection period should be considered when exploring the relationship between HFRS incidence and meteorological factors such as air temperature. Further investigation is warranted to detect the thresholds of meteorological factors for the HFRS early warning purposes, to measure the duration of lagged effects and determine the timing of maximum effects for reducing the effects of meteorological factors on HFRS via continuous interventions and to identify the vulnerable populations for target protection.

Wild Rats, Laboratory Rats, Pet Rats: Global Seoul Hantavirus Disease Revisited.

Recent reports from Europe and the USA described Seoul orthohantavirus infection in pet rats and their breeders/owners, suggesting the potential emergence of a "new" public health problem. Wild and laboratory rat-induced Seoul infections have, however, been described since the early eighties, due to the omnipresence of the rodent reservoir, the brown rat Rattus norvegicus. Recent studies showed no fundamental differences between the pathogenicity and phylogeny of pet rat-induced Seoul orthohantaviruses and their formerly described wild or laboratory rat counterparts. The paucity of diagnosed Seoul virus-induced disease in the West is in striking contrast to the thousands of cases recorded since the 1980s in the Far East, particularly in China. This review of four continents (Asia, Europe, America, and Africa) puts this "emerging infection" into a historical perspective, concluding there is an urgent need for greater medical awareness of Seoul virus-induced human pathology in many parts of the world Given the mostly milder and atypical clinical presentation, sometimes even with preserved normal kidney function, the importance of simple but repeated urine examination is stressed, since initial but transient proteinuria and microhematuria are rarely lacking.

Phylogeography of Puumala orthohantavirus in Europe.

Puumala virus is an RNA virus hosted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) and is today present in most European countries. Whilst it is generally accepted that hantaviruses have been tightly co-evolving with their hosts, Puumala virus (PUUV) evolutionary history is still controversial and so far has not been studied at the whole European level. This study attempts to reconstruct the phylogeographical spread of modern PUUV throughout Europe during the last postglacial period in the light of an upgraded dataset of complete PUUV small (S) segment sequences and by using most recent computational approaches. Taking advantage of the knowledge on the past migrations of its host, we identified at least three potential independent dispersal routes of PUUV during postglacial recolonization of Europe by the bank vole. From the Alpe-Adrian region (Balkan, Austria, and Hungary) to Western European countries (Germany, France, Belgium, and Netherland), and South Scandinavia. From the vicinity of Carpathian Mountains to the Baltic countries and to Poland, Russia, and Finland. The dissemination towards Denmark and North Scandinavia is more hypothetical and probably involved several independent streams from south and north Fennoscandia.

The characteristics of current natural foci of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong Province, China, 2012-2015.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), an infectious disease caused by hantaviruses, is endemic in China and remains a serious public health problem. Historically, Shandong Province has had the largest HFRS burden in China. However, we do not have a comprehensive and clear understanding of the current epidemic foci of HFRS in Shandong Province. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The incidence and mortality rates were calculated, and a phylogenetic analysis was performed after laboratory testing of the virus in rodents. Spatial epidemiology analysis was applied to investigate the epidemic foci, including their sources. A total of 6,206 HFRS cases and 59 related deaths were reported in Shandong Province. The virus carriage rates of the rodents Rattus norvegicus, Apodemus agrarius and Mus musculus were 10.24%, 6.31% and 0.27%, respectively. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that two novel viruses obtained from R. norvegicus in Anqiu City and Qingzhou City were dissimilar to the other strains, but closely related to strains previously isolated in northeastern China. Three epidemic foci were defined, two of which were derived from the Jining and Linyi epidemic foci, respectively, while the other was the residue of the Jining epidemic focus. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The southeastern and central Shandong Province are current key HFRS epidemic foci dominated by A. agrarius and R. norvegicus, respectively. Our study could help local departments to strengthen prevention and control measures in key areas to reduce the hazards of HFRS.

Genetic analyses of Seoul hantavirus genome recovered from rats (Rattus norvegicus) in the Netherlands unveils diverse routes of spread into Europe.

Seoul virus (SEOV) is the etiologic agent of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. It is carried by brown rats (Rattus norvegicus), a commensal rodent that closely cohabitates with humans in urban environments. SEOV has a worldwide distribution, and in Europe, it has been found in rats in UK, France, Sweden, and Belgium, and human cases of SEOV infection have been reported in Germany, UK, France, and Belgium. In the search of hantaviruses in brown rats from the Netherlands, we found both serological and genetic evidence for the presence of SEOV in the local wild rat population. To further decipher the relationship with other SEOV variants globally, the complete genome of SEOV in the Netherlands was recovered. SEOV sequences obtained from three positive rats (captured at close trapping locations at the same time) were found highly similar. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that two lineages of SEOV circulate in Europe. Strains from the Netherlands and UK, together with the Baxter strain from US, constitute one of these two, while the second includes strains from Europe and Asia. Our results support a hypothesis of diverse routes of SEOV spread into Europe. These findings, combined with other indications on the expansion of the spatial European range of SEOV, suggest an increased risk of this virus for the public health, highlighting the need for increased surveillance.

Molecular detection of viruses causing hemorrhagic fevers in rodents in the south-west of Korea.

Many pathogens causing hemorrhagic fevers of medical and veterinary importance have been identified and isolated from rodents in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We investigated the occurrence of emerging viruses causing hemorrhagic fevers, such as hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), and flaviviruses, from wild rodents. Striped field mice, Apodemus agrarius (n = 39), were captured during 2014-2015 in the south-west of ROK. Using molecular methods, lung samples were evaluated for SFTS virus, hantavirus, and flavivirus, and seropositivity was evaluated in the blood. A high positive rate of hantavirus (46.2%) was detected in A. agrarius lungs by reverse transcription-nested polymerase chain reaction (RT-N-PCR). The monthly occurrence of hantavirus was 16.7% in October, 86.7% in November, and 25% in August of the following year (p < 0.001). Moreover, 17.9% of blood samples were serologically positive for hantavirus antibodies. The most prevalent strain in A. agrarius was Hantaan virus. All samples were positive for neither SFTS virus nor flavivirus. Hantaan virus was detected in 86.7% of A. agrarius in November (autumn), and thus, virus shedding from A. agrarius can increase the risk of humans contracting HFRS. These findings may help to predict and prevent disease outbreaks in ROK.

A new Seasonal Difference Space-Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SD-STARIMA) model and spatiotemporal trend prediction analysis for Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS).

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a naturally-occurring, fecally transmitted disease caused by a Hantavirus (HV). It is extremely damaging to human health and results in many deaths annually, especially in Hubei Province, China. One of the primary characteristics of HFRS is the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of its occurrence, with notable seasonal differences. In view of this heterogeneity, the present study suggests that there is a need to focus on trend simulation and the spatiotemporal prediction of HFRS outbreaks. To facilitate this, we constructed a new Seasonal Difference Space-Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SD-STARIMA) model. The SD-STARIMA model is based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Space-Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARMA) model first developed by Cliff and Ord in 1974, which has proven useful in modelling the temporal aspects of spatially located data. This model can simulate the trends in HFRS epidemics, taking into consideration both spatial and temporal variations. The SD-STARIMA model is also able to make seasonal difference calculations to eliminate temporally non-stationary problems that are present in the HFRS data. Experiments have demonstrated that the proposed SD-STARIMA model offers notably better prediction accuracy, especially for spatiotemporal series data with seasonal distribution characteristics.

Environmental Determinants of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in High-Risk Counties in China: A Time Series Analysis (2002-2012).

The transmission pattern of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is associated with environmental conditions, including meteorological factors and land-cover. In the present study, the association between HFRS and environmental factors (including maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and normalized difference vegetation index) were explored in two typical counties in Northeast and two counties in Northwest China with severe HFRS outbreaks by using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX). The results showed that rainfall with 3- to 4-month lag was closely associated with HFRS in the two counties in Northeast China, whereas relative humidity with 1- or 5-month lag significantly impacts HFRS transmission in the two counties in Northwest China. Moreover, the SARIMAX models exhibit accurate forecasting ability of HFRS cases. Our findings provide scientific support for local HFRS monitoring and control, and the development of a HFRS early warning system.